Last month, the Government announced COVID -19 restrictions would end, a month earlier than planned. With a successful rollout of the vaccine programme and a reduction in cases and hospitalisations, Boris Johnson argued that an end to COVID restrictions could be brought forward and Britain could start getting back to normal.
One of the more controversial aspects of the end of restrictions was the need to regularly self-test and isolate, if positive for COVID. Although guidelines suggested people self-isolate for five days, it was no longer a legal requirement.
A month on from this announcement, COVID cases are rising with hospitalisations. The Government has stated the rise could be related to waning immunity and announced a fourth vaccine programme, starting with vulnerable groups.
There has been a significant rise in COVID cases during March, with the Office for National Statistics estimating that 1 in 27 people were infected in the week ending March 5. The Office for National
Statistics infection survey, which tests thousands of people randomly in households across the UK, estimated that 2.6 million people would have tested positive in the week ending March 5 — up from 2.4 million the previous week.
By mid-March, the number of daily positive tests jumped to over 100,000, with hospitalisations too rising. When asked about the rise in cases, the Health Secretary, Sajid Javid, said the rise was ‘to be expected’ and that the Government would monitor the situation carefully.
A rise in cases after a reduction in testing and self-isolation is perhaps to be expected, and as we head into the warmer months and more outdoor-based mixing, cases may level off again – but does the Government have a plan if the rise in cases and hospitalisations continues to increase?
The reasons behind the rise in cases are thought to be related to the easing of restrictions, the high transmissibility of the BA.2 variant and waning immunity in vaccinated people —especially the elderly, who would have received their boosters around six months ago.
There is evidence that the older age groups are experiencing rising rates of infection, with the ZOE COVID study, which monitors COVID infections, reporting a rise in new cases in the over 75s, who had previously had low case numbers for months.
In response to the rising levels of infections in the over 70s, the Government has announced a fourth vaccine programme from April, which will be aimed at the over 75s, care home residents, and vulnerable groups.
The fourth vaccine will be offered to people in these groups six months after their most recent COVID vaccine. Health officials say the vaccines offer good protection from more serious infections and diseases but do not prevent infections.
The rise in infections is a stark reminder that COVID is not over. Any dip in immunity could see a rise in cases, especially amongst the elderly. In addition to the end of self-isolation, rules the Government set out in its ‘Living with COVID ’ plan that Lateral flow tests will no longer be free from April 1, tests will be available but will need to be purchased from pharmacies and other outlets, and that all international travel restrictions will also be lifted.
The end of free testing could mean fewer people will test if they have COVID, potentially contributing to a rise in cases.
The end of free testing has raised questions for many as to whether it is wise for the Government to end funding for tests at this point as they form a crucial element in detecting COVID cases and preventing spread.
As a result of a reduction in testing, experts argue that the data will not be available to monitor the disease and respond to outbreaks and rising cases.
The Government seems to be basing its COVID plan on the fourth vaccine boosting immunity in vulnerable groups and new medicines to treat COVID for those who end up with serious illness, and that whilst COVID will continue to circulate, it will not disrupt daily life too much.
After two years of restrictions, most people are, understandably, looking towards the end of COVID and returning to normal, but we will have to wait and see how this strategy plays out in the next few months. With a reduction in mask-wearing in public places, a reduction in testing and self-isolation, COVID is likely to spread.
Rachel Kayani
