(Photo credit: European Space Agency/CC)
On May 17, the World Meteorological Organization announced that global temperatures are projected to reach record highs in the next five years, likely missing the Paris Climate Agreement target of keeping temperature rises below 1.5°C compared with preindustrial levels.
The findings point to a lack of robust enough action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the coming El Niño Southern Oscillation, a phenomenon which brings about warmer weather in equatorial Pacific waters, inducing more extreme weather patterns.
The last eight years have been measured as the warmest on record and saw major natural disasters. Scientists predict further costly damage from warm weather, including droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires.
The World Meteorological Organization stated in a press release that, “There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.”
The findings come from the WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, which also predicts which regions will see altered rainfall patterns in the Sahel, northern Europe, northern Siberia, and Alaska. The report also offered detailed predictions of near-surface temperature rises, precipitation, and sea-level pressure.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation
According to America’s National Weather Service, “El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific.”
It occurs every 3-5 years and the last hottest year on record, 2016, was an El Niño year. Its counterpart, La Niña, has the opposite effect, with stronger trade winds pushing warmer water towards Asia. A study published in the journal Science, found that El Niño’s effects can cost damage into the trillions of dollars.
The problem with warmer temperatures
Warmer weather patterns can lead to coral bleaching, altered rainfall patterns that cause flooding, seasonal shifts that affect food production, and sea level rise which threatens coastal communities and island nations. El Niño makes the situation worse, causing increased sea surface temperatures.
Warmer sea surface temperatures create conditions for stronger storms to form in the ocean before making landfall, as warmer air holds more water. In recent years, damage to infrastructure from stronger storms has become costlier.
According to the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, “Climate amplified tropical cyclones have caused over $1,333 billion in damages since 1980.” The economic losses of natural disasters in 2022 came to $313 billion, according to insurance broker AON.
Comparing 1.5°C to 2°C
While climate leaders have discussed the importance of keeping the 1.5°C goal alive, many nations’ commitments have not been robust enough to accomplish it.
For some time, experts have warned that the 1.5°C goal would not be reached, and that instead, with rapid efforts to reduce carbon emissions, the goal of keeping global temperatures under 2°C from industrial levels, could be attained.
Global temperatures are currently 1.06°C above pre-industrial levels. At 1.5°C, an estimated 70-90 percent of coral reefs will die off, and at 2°C, that increases to 99 percent. Compared to 1.5°C, a temperature increase of 2°C would double the loss of vertebrate and plant species, and cause 3 times the loss of insects. Habitat loss disrupts ecosystems and can have downstream effects along the food chain, causing species to die off or be forced to migrate.
Global temperatures surpassing the 1.5 threshold does not mean they cannot still be brought down. Some years may see rises below 1.5°C but surpassing the threshold will make it more likely that future temperatures will exceed it as part of the upward trend. Dire predictions about the need for swift action before the end of the decade have been echoed by scientists in recent years.
Policymakers are acting to bring down emissions, but many have expressed that energy security by any means necessary is more of a priority than fully switching to renewables.
An oil field on Alaska’s Northern Slope was recently approved in the US. Germany resurrected coal-fired power plants in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Leaders claim that such projects are necessary to keep down costs for consumers, yet the increase in natural disasters due to warmer weather patterns will also require exorbitant rebuilding costs.
Sarah Sakeena Marshall,
American University’s School of Intl Service,
The Muslim News Environmental Columnist
