The latest COP climate conference concluded on December 13 in Dubai. The event was mired in controversy even before it began, hosted in a nation rich in oil wealth and led by an oil executive, Dr Sultan Al-Jaber.
Days before the event, Al-Jaber made headlines with an outburst, claiming there is “no science” behind the claim that phasing out fossil fuels is necessary to stave off climate change. Leaked documents also showed that Middle Eastern leaders at the summit intended to use the climate talks to strike oil deals with partner nations.
Despite the perceived irony of allowing leaders with fossil fuel business interests to have an outsized presence at a conference aimed at curbing their use, progress was made on some fronts.
The final document, signed by nearly 200 nations, included the words “transition away from fossil fuels” for the first time, solidified a loss and damage fund, and addressed food and agriculture systems, which contribute heavily to carbon emissions.
“Loss and Damage” refer to the negative effects of climate change that go beyond a community’s ability to adapt and often affect those who have contributed the least to it. At COP27 in Egypt, a Loss and Damage Fund was established, but the fund formally received pledges on the first day of COP28.
The UAE, Germany, Italy, and France each pledged $100 million or more, while the U.S. pledged $17.5 million and Japan $10 million. The pledges are a start, but Loss and Damage needs for Global South nations is estimated at between $100 and $500 billion per year.
Loss and Damage funding is needed in part because of modern food systems, particularly food waste and livestock production, which account for significant carbon emissions. According to the 2015 Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) report livestock, agrifood systems account for approximately 12 per cent of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
At COP28, the FAO released a Global Roadmap “to eradicate hunger and keep the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement alive.” The roadmap covers ten avenues of action, including food loss and waste, livestock, forests and wetlands, crops, fisheries, and aquaculture. Two-thirds of the countries participating in COP28 signed the non-binding deal, which uses vague language.
Keeping 1.5°C alive
The 1.5°C goal commonly mentioned at climate summits aims to prevent global temperatures from rising above 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels.
Upon passing this threshold, climate scientists warn of longer droughts, stronger storms, and greater biodiversity losses, all of which have occurred in recent years. John Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, claimed that COP28 was the last chance to keep the 1.5°C goal alive.
To do so, emissions would need to be cut by 43 per cent this decade.
However, scientists have deemed the 1.5°C goal virtually impossible to reach given current levels of carbon emissions; they anticipate passing the threshold within the next ten years. It is likely that a new goal for climate summits will aim to keep emissions below 2°C instead.
Small island nations
Members of the Alliance for Small Island States (AOSIS) felt snubbed when they were not present when Sultan al-Jaber struck the final gavel to conclude the summit.
AOSIS countries are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise due to climate change. Members found the final document inadequate, citing loopholes and vague language on fossil fuel phase-out.
AOSIS leaders criticised the lack of language calling for peaking emissions in 2025 and no mention of ceasing subsidies to the fossil fuel industry.
The presence of oil industry executives and lobbyists, who pushed for technological advancements such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), which has largely unproven value, over reducing reliance on fossil fuels, was viewed as a slap in the face for many vulnerable nations.
COP climate summits are major events that bring together world leaders, Silicon Valley and Hollywood elites, environmental advocates, climate scientists, and more.
Despite the general acceptance around the globe that climate change is a dire and existential threat to humanity, recent COPs have been disappointing, held in nations with major fossil fuel industries and strong censorship laws that stifle protest, long seen as a staple of conferences. The non-binding nature of the agreements allows for a wider willingness to sign without accountability for meeting goals.
COP28 touched on critical issues and even called for the tripling of renewable energy capacity globally by 2030, but Big Oil’s overt presence, along with multiple participants attending via private jet, speaks to the global appetite for a reliable phase-down of fossil fuels.
Photo: President of COP28, Dr Sultan al-Jaber (Credit: Junktuner/WikiCommons)
Sarah Sakeena Marshall,
American University’s School of International Service, The Muslim News Environmental Columnist
