Nadine Osman
The public vastly overestimates London’s Muslim population, with many also believing parts of the capital are controlled by Sharia law and closed to non-Muslims, according to a King’s College London study.
The median estimate was that 35 per cent of Londoners are Muslim — more than twice the actual figure of 15 per cent — in research published on September 10.
The study also found that 34 per cent believed London had “no-go” areas where Sharia law dominates and non-Muslims cannot enter. Thirty-six per cent rejected the claim, while 19 per cent said they did not know.
The findings come from London has fallen? Misperceptions of crime, race, religion and life in the UK capital, published by King’s College London’s Policy Institute as part of its Mistaken Britain research series.
Based on a YouGov survey of 2,164 UK adults conducted between March 23 and 27, the study found the largest overestimates of London’s Muslim population among Reform UK and Conservative supporters. Their median estimates were 50 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat supporters gave lower estimates, but still overestimated the actual figure.
The researchers found a strong link between inflated estimates of the Muslim population and belief in supposed Sharia “no-go” areas. Among those who believed 70 per cent or more of Londoners are Muslim, 62 per cent said such areas existed, compared with 34 per cent of the public overall.
Londoners themselves were more sceptical, with only 18 per cent agreeing that such areas existed and 62 per cent disagreeing, including 44 per cent who strongly rejected the claim.
Exaggerated perceptions of the Muslim population were also associated with more negative views of London Mayor Sadiq Khan. Among those estimating that at least 70 per cent of Londoners are Muslim, 80 per cent agreed that Khan celebrates every festival except Christmas and 78 per cent said he was doing a bad job. Across the public as a whole, the figures were 41 per cent and 42 per cent respectively.
Professor Bobby Duffy, Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, said Reform UK and Conservative supporters tended to imagine London as “far more dangerous, violent and in decline than it really is” and “hugely overestimate the Muslim share of the capital’s population”.
He said they were also more likely to believe there were “areas wholly controlled by Muslims and excluding others”.
Duffy said people on the political left had their own misconceptions, including underestimating some crimes that had increased and the diversity of London.
“Each of us tends to see the London that fits the story we already believe,” he said, pointing to political messaging, social media and an increasingly fragmented media environment.
The public was more accurate in estimating London’s Christian population, putting it at 40 per cent compared with an actual 41 per cent.
According to the 2021 Census, Muslims account for around 15 per cent of London’s population, making Islam the capital’s second-largest religious affiliation after Christianity.
The research also found that people overestimated London’s Black and Asian populations, while Labour and Green supporters tended to overestimate the proportion who are White British.
Misconceptions extended to crime. The public estimated that 30 per cent of Londoners had experienced a crime during the year to September 2025, compared with an actual figure of 12.2 per cent.
London was also wrongly perceived as having the highest violent crime rate in England and Wales, while the study found it had the lowest. The public also wrongly identified London as having the highest proportion of refugees and asylum seekers.
King’s College London said its factual comparisons were based on official sources including the Office for National Statistics, the 2021 Census, the Metropolitan Police, the Migration Observatory and the House of Commons Library.
Duffy said a shared understanding of factual information was essential for public debate.
“Protecting a shared view of the reality of London is crucial to allow healthy debate about our capital – we’re all entitled to our own opinions on that, but not our own facts,” he said.
