President of Brazil Lula da Silva, President of China Xi Jinping, President of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa, Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov, during the BRICS Leaders Retreat Meeting, at Johannesburg, on August 22 .(Photo credit:GCIS/Flickr)
Mahomed Faizal, Johannesburg, South Africa
The entrance of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, the UAE, Ethiopia, and Egypt into BRICS has caused ripples in Western capitals that previously regarded the grouping with derision.
As of January 1, 2024, the original BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will now comprise six of the world’s nine biggest oil producers. The previous BRICS will have a combined GDP of $27.6 trillion in 2023, representing almost 26.3% of the global economy, while BRICS+ will now make up 30% of the global economy, estimated at $31 trillion.
A 2003 Goldman Sachs report titled “Dreaming with BRIC’S: The Path to 2050” stated that over the next 50 years, the BRICS economies—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—could become a much larger force in the world economy and that in less than 40 years, these economies could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms.
Even more striking, the report states that by 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G7, with only the US and Japan counting among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050.
While BRICs had initially been disparaged by Western media and political commentators as merely a PR exercise, it has emerged as one of the greatest challenges to Western hegemony over the global political and economic system and its institutions.
The new members have caused a stir and could be about to shake the existing balance of power.
While the enlarged BRICS has been a diplomatic coup for South Africa, the groundwork for getting Iran and Saudi Arabia on board was brokered six months ago by China. In a move that blindsided many western intelligence and security agencies, rapprochement was announced between the once-regional adversaries. Riyadh, Washington’s closest ally in the region, and Iran, Washington’s most strident nemesis, were cobbled together by China, the US’s current foe.
Iran and Saudi Arabia’s membership certainly adds muscularity to the bloc, making it a formidable platform where energy giants can flex their economic muscles. With UAE and Egypt into the mix, and India and Ethiopia with their sizeable populations, 500 million Muslims are now part of this potentially powerful economic and political group.
On the eve of the 15th BRICs Summit in South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa pointedly remarked: “We want to use this opportunity to advance the interests of our continent, and we will therefore, through the BRICS summit, have an outreach process or moment where we will invite other African countries to come and be part of the BRICS because we do want BRICS in whatever BRICS does to focus on helping to develop our continent”.
This was likely a pre-emptive summit policy gambit by Ramaphosa, which charted the course of what a future BRICS might look like.
Since its formation in June 2009, the BRICS coalition has forged ahead, almost unnoticed, in fomenting a game-changing policy shift in global affairs. This was not only achieved through a redirection of economic relations but also through a realignment of political forces that has ushered in an unprecedented rapprochement in a previously quarrelsome neighbourhood.
As one of the significant notches under its belt, the Iran-Saudi Arabia détente, while primarily shepherded by China, is part of the peace and security imperative underpinning the BRICS non-aggression agenda that seeks to ease hostilities between countries. War is the last resort, unlike the bellicosity of the Western military blocs.
Development has always been a cornerstone of the economic agenda of BRICS—collectively among themselves and then bilaterally with emerging and underdeveloped economies. The thrust of the new economic agenda is to first build the marginalised and struggling economies and, secondly, court the developed and semi-developed economies of those on the fringes of BRICS membership.
Africa has proved to be fertile ground for BRICS, led primarily by China. Quid pro quo economic relations have expanded China’s influence and status on the African continent. With the possible expansion of its membership, the windfall for existing BRICS members could be enormous. Bilateral trade between potential new members will not only open new economic markets but will also realign political affiliations.
The emergence of a multipolar world is seen as necessary. This would enable BRICS to engage in and play a more decisive role in shaping a new world order. BRICS members’ solidarity and working in unison will certainly militate against Western unipolarity and reposition BRICS as the preeminent bloc when confronting Western hegemony.
It was UN Secretary-General António Guterres who observed that the world has changed and that global institutions should also change. “This is why we want reforms that are more responsive to developing countries. Two areas require reform: the UN Security Council and the Bretton Woods Institutions. If we don’t, we will get fractured. We need to act in solidarity,” he said.
The BRICS bloc gives its members immediate, direct, and privileged access to China. With the imminent entry of new members from Africa and the Middle East, China’s status and relevance increase manifold.
BRICS offers its members an alternative political platform where they can engage with one another. Not only does it offer diplomatic and moral support, but it also provides a bulwark against bullying and intimidation from existing Western power blocs. Russia was able to extract political, diplomatic, and economic support from its friends after its incursion into Ukraine.
BRICS membership is now sought by many countries. This exclusive club of five is about to become more inclusive with diverse voices. This offers the once-marginalised countries status, privilege, and access that could regenerate their economies and give them a voice. The fact that almost 20 countries are seeking membership points to the fact that it remains an important and powerful platform.
The Summit in South Africa will be a significant marker, as it will shape its future. What is most likely to be true is that BRICS, in its current form, will inevitably change.
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