Anar Bata
The Muslim American vote has never been as consequential as it will be in the 2024 US presidential election. While only comprising 1 per cent of the overall population, Muslim American voters can significantly influence the election results due to their concentration in key swing states.
Voter turnout amongst this demographic is exceptionally high, with 71 per cent of registered Muslim Americans voting in 2020, four points higher than the national average. Ensuring these voters turn out in swing states, where the margin of victory for either party will be slim, will be crucial if the Democratic Party hopes to retain their position in the White House.
Though strong supporters of current US President, Joe Biden, in 2020, Muslim Americans have become disillusioned by the Democratic Party following events of the past year. A survey conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found 98 per cent of Muslims surveyed disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. While 65 per cent of Muslim voters opted for Biden in 2020, only 12 per cent of Muslims said they would vote for Biden in 2024, before his withdrawal from the race.
This turn-away from the Democratic Party could have detrimental results for Democratic Nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, as a large number of Muslim voters consider voting third-party in swing states won by Biden by a slim margin.
2020 saw record turnout from the Muslim American community across the United States, especially in states like Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, which were crucial to securing the Democratic party’s victory. In Pennsylvania, where Biden won by just 81,000 votes, 125,000 Muslims cast their ballots. Former Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton lost Michigan, home to 200,000 Muslim voters, to former US President Donald Trump by less than 11,000 votes in 2016. In 2024, 40 per cent of Muslim voters in Michigan support third-party candidate Jill Stein, compared to 18 per cent who support Trump and 12 per cent who prefer Harris.
Efforts are being made by the Democratic Party to court Muslim American voters, with Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz speaking virtually at an Emgage Summit, an advocacy group that works to encourage Muslim Americans to vote, in early October. Walz called for an end to the war in Gaza and emphasised a Harris administration would work ‘side by side’ with Muslim Americans.
Harris has also indicated a slight shift from Biden in her approach to the conflict and has been more vocal regarding the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. In March of this year, she was one of the first senior members of the US government to publicly call for a temporary cease-fire and, following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Congress, said in a press briefing, ‘We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering. And I will not be silent.’
But a shift in rhetoric is not enough to garner the support of many who accuse the US of hypocrisy and double standards when it comes to global conflicts. A significant change in US policy towards Israel is the key factor influencing Muslim American voters ahead of the November election. Stein, a third-party candidate running for the Green Party, has voiced her support for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and an embargo on US arms to Israel, policies that resonate strongly with Muslim American voters.
Despite her popularity amongst large segments of the American population, it is nearly impossible for a third-party candidate to succeed in an election bid due to the winner-take-all system in US elections, which favours candidates from the two major parties who can secure larger shares of the vote. As a result, voting for a third-party candidate will only pull voters away from the two main parties, which can be consequential in a tight election.
Recognising this, leaders of Muslim advocacy groups have begun to encourage their communities to vote for Harris, with Nada Al-Hanooti, the National Organising Deputy Director of Emgage, stating a ‘third-party vote was tantamount to a vote for Donald Trump.’
Former US President Donald Trump often overlooked Palestinian concerns while in office, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognising the city as Israel’s capital, despite international recognition of East Jerusalem as occupied territory. He has often lauded his success with the Abraham Accords, a bilateral agreement that normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, as well as between Israel and Bahrain.
There is no indication that there has been a shift in Trump’s position towards Palestine, as the former President has not outlined how his approach to the conflict would differ from Biden’s. However, unequivocal support for Israel is likely, with Trump recently stating, ‘I will support Israel’s right to win its war on terror, and it has to win it fast.’
As Muslim activists and state officials recognise the negative impact a second Trump term could have on an already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, many have begun to endorse the Harris and Walz ticket, including Keith Ellison, Minnesota Attorney General, and Ilhan Omar, US Representative for Minnesota. Other organisations to affirm their support for Harris include the Black Muslim Leadership Council and Muslim Women for Harris-Walz, who emphasised they would continue to pressure the Biden Administration to push forward a permanent ceasefire. Most recently, a group of 25 Imams from several states, including Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, jointly signed a letter affirming their support for Harris and stating, ‘Knowingly enabling someone like Donald Trump to return to office, whether by voting directly for him or a third-party candidate, is both a moral and a strategic failure.’
How Muslim Americans decide to vote on November 5 will be crucial in determining the outcome of an election that will have significant global consequences.
Photo: In the 2024 election, 40% of Muslim voters in Michigan support third-party candidate Jill Stein, while 18% back Donald Trump, and 12% favour Kamala Harris. (Credit CC)
Anar Bata,
Manager, US & Americas Programme,
Chatham House
READ MORE
GAZA RELATED COVERAGE
Editorial: Israel’s atrocities unmask West’s grotesque inhumanity toward non-Europeans
Vote for third-party candidates, scholars urge Muslim Americans
Suspended MP claims Labour colleagues stay silent on government’s Israel support out of job fears
More than 100 Muslim Labour councillors demand arms embargo on Israel
US health workers estimate death toll in Gaza is 119,000
Uncertainty grips Israel: Only 27% see Gaza victory as global reputation sinks
Ex-Biden officials launch PAC to challenge US stance on Gaza
Anti-Zionist beliefs are ‘worthy of respect’, declares UK tribunal in landmark ruling
Pulitzer winner rejects prestigious award in solidarity with Palestine
