Elham Asaad Buaras
The official Palestinian death toll in the Gaza Strip is likely underestimated fatalities by 41% through mid-2024, as the enclave’s healthcare infrastructure collapsed under the sustained pressure of Israel’s military assault, according to a comprehensive study published in The Lancet, the world’s leading peer-reviewed medical journal.
Researchers employed the statistical method of capture-recapture analysis to estimate the true scale of deaths resulting from Israel’s relentless airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza during the war’s first nine months, from October 2023 to June 2024.
Published on January 9, the study estimated that traumatic injuries claimed the lives of 64,260 men, women, and children during this period, approximately 41% higher than the
Palestinian Health Ministry’s official count of roughly 46,000 deaths.
Women, children, and elderly individuals aged over 65 made up 59.1% of the fatalities. Notably, the study did not estimate the number of combatants among the deceased.
The Lancet study emphasised that Gaza’s healthcare system, previously known for its reliable electronic death registry, experienced severe disruptions under the conflict’s escalating violence.
The devastation included targeted strikes on hospitals, widespread destruction of medical infrastructure, and interruptions to digital communication networks caused by Israel’s operations.
Anecdotal evidence and witness reports indicated that many victims remained buried beneath the rubble of collapsed buildings, excluded from official death tolls.
To address these discrepancies, the Lancet study employed methodologies previously used in conflict zones such as Kosovo and Sudan. Researchers analysed data from at least two independent sources to identify overlapping entries in lists of the dead.
Lower overlap rates between lists indicated higher numbers of unrecorded fatalities, allowing researchers to estimate the true death toll.
For the Gaza study, researchers compared three data sources: the Palestinian Health Ministry’s official death count, which initially included only bodies brought to hospitals but later incorporated other reporting methods; an online survey distributed by the Health Ministry, collecting details such as names, ID numbers, age, sex, and location of death; and obituaries and death notices posted on social media platforms.
(Credit: Osama Rabii/Anadolu Agency)
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