Nadine Osman
Some 64 percent of Muslims in a recent poll said they plan to vote Labour; however, the party’s response to the Israel-Palestine conflict has not been viewed especially positively.
The polling by Savanta, released on November 16, was strongly at odds with Muslim Engagement and Development (MEND) and the Muslim Census snap poll released late in October, which illustrated a massive Muslim swing against Labour.
The Muslim Census survey suggested that Labour Muslim votes would dramatically drop from 71 percent to only 5 percent; in contrast, Savanta’s online poll found that 84 percent of those who voted Labour in 2019 would vote for the party again. By contrast, only 62 percent of Conservative voters said they would vote Tory again.
And although 41 percent of the 1,032 Muslims polled by Savanta felt the Labour leaders handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict made them feel more negatively towards the party, the conflict was the fourth most important issue when deciding how to vote at the next election.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “This poll of UK Muslims tends to indicate that the Israel-Palestine conflict is very important as an issue, and the response from the Labour Party has not been viewed especially positively.
“However, Labour appears to be retaining three-quarters of its Muslim vote from 2019, with little significant movement to other parties, and although the net satisfaction rating for Keir Starmer’s handling of the conflict is overwhelmingly negative, it’s far better than that of the government and Rishi Sunak.
“The longer Labour’s divisions over this issue play out, we could see more Muslim voters abandon the party, but the suggestion that Muslim voters, en masse, are no longer willing to vote Labour due to its response over Israel-Palestine seems wildly exaggerated if this poll is anything to go by.”
But Hopkins noted that the poll being done online in English “will likely have some impact on how truly representative it is”. He added: “Older Muslims, those for whom English isn’t their first language, and those less likely to be online, aren’t likely to be represented in this poll.”
The Muslim Census poll asserted that every one of the over 30,000 Muslims polled also acknowledged that the developments in Israel’s ongoing attack on the Gaza Strip have caused a shift in their voting intentions.
Despite mounting UN-documented evidence of war crimes against Palestinians, both the Prime Minister and the Labour Leader have expressed their unconditional support for Israel during its indiscriminate bombardment of the Gaza Strip.
The Muslim Census poll said the unconditional support that dehumanises the Palestinian struggle has led to almost all Muslims (98 percent ) having a negative view of how the Labour and Conservative Party have responded.
In an interview with LBC, Starmer suggested that Israel has the “right” to cut off power and water from Gaza. He has since backtracked on the comments, saying he “was not saying Israel had the right to cut off water, food, fuel, or medicines”. Despite his backtracking, Labour has refused to publicly call for a ceasefire.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has also voiced his ‘unequivocal support’ for Israel and has visited Jewish communities in the United Kingdom to share his sympathies.
Muslim Census added: “The Muslim vote has the potential to swing several seats across the UK, as MEND has previously found. It seems the possibility of the Muslim vote having a deciding impact is now likelier than ever before.
“More broadly, it suggests that the Muslim electorate, who have historically aligned themselves with Labour, have greater and more complex political interests and needs that cannot be assumed to align with any political party, and thus Muslims can no longer be subject to political complacencies. In any case, with a 6.5 percent share of the British population, the youngest age profile of all religious groups, and given their concentration in inner city conurbations, it is clear the political and electoral implications will be far-reaching.”
Meanwhile, MEND said such findings should hardly be a surprise for Labour, considering the widespread revulsion among Muslims towards comments made by the party’s leader on October 11 when he claimed that “Israel has the right” to cut off power and water from Gaza in self-defence.
“While these Labour figures lamented the deaths caused to Israeli civilians by Hamas’ October 7 attack, there was little mention given to the staggeringly high number of innocent souls who have perished as a consequence of Israel unleashing its war machine on the beleaguered 2.3 million residents of Gaza.”
On October 27, London Mayor Sadiq Khan and the Scottish Labour Party leader, Anas Sarwar, Labour’s two most senior Muslim figures, broke ranks with the Labour leadership and called for a ceasefire. At least 29 Labour councillors have resigned from the party over its handling of the Gaza crisis. Nine were in Oxford, which led to Labour losing control of the council.
The Guardian revealed on October 28 that several Labour MPs had received more emails and other correspondence regarding their party’s handling of the Gaza crisis than they had for any other previous subject. A shadow minister stated that their voters were extremely worried about the war and that they had received more letters concerning Gaza “than anything ever before.”
Another MP said they had received about 750 emails from constituents seeking a ceasefire and aid for Gaza. They said other MPs had reported receiving more than 1,000 messages.
“This is by far the biggest postbag we’ve had for any single issue. We’ve received about five times more correspondence on this than the next one down,” the MP said.
To win over Muslim voters, Starmer then visited the South Wales Islamic Centre on October 22, where he caused further division as the mosque said they were dismayed by his social media post that gravely misrepresented the event, which has led to further hurt and confusion amongst the Muslim community.
In a statement, the centre apologised “for the hurt and confusion” caused by hosting Starmer and said the intention was to highlight the suffering of people in Palestine.
It also expressed “dismay” over Starmer’s social media post about the visit, which said: “I was grateful to hear from the Muslim community of the South Wales Islamic Centre. I repeated our calls for all hostages to be released, more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, for the water and power to be switched back on, and a renewed focus on a two-state solution.”
In response, the South Wales Islamic Centre said: “We wish to stress that Keir Starmer’s social media posts and images gravely misrepresented our congregants and the nature of the visit.
“We affirm, unequivocally, the need for a free Palestine. We implore all those with political authority to uphold international law and put an end to the occupation of Palestine.”
The statement added, “There was a robust and frank conversation that reflected the sentiments Muslim communities are feeling at this time. Members of the community directly challenged Keir on his statements made on the Israeli government’s right to cut food, electricity, and water to Gaza, warranting war crimes as well as his failure to call for an immediate ceasefire.”
The Muslim News reached out to the Labour Party for comment.
Photo: London, November 4: Labour leader Keir Starmer was lambasted for his unconditional support for Israel during a protest in Trafalgar Square, calling for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.(Credit: Alisdare Hickson/Flickr CC)
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